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How to set up your own company in China?

1. Copy of legal person passport, mobile phone number, email
2. Copy of shareholder's passport, share proportion, mobile phone number, email
3. Determine the name of the company (provide keywords, and we check and select a Chinese name for your new business )
4. Define the business scope (According to your new business and business model, we'll help to draft it )
5. Determine registered capital

1. Company name verification
2. Submit registration documents
3. Electronic Signature of registration documents
4. Obtain business license and company seal
5. Opening a bank account
6. Apply for tax registration

To know more details, contact Vivian:
MP/ WeChat:+86 13917620372
E-mail: [email protected]

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What you Need to Know About China’s Amended Company Law?

The amended Company Law is effective from July 1,2024.This revision impacts several key areas of corporate formation, management and governance. Below are some key highlights of FAQs for you easy reference:

Q1. What are the new provisions of the amended "Company Law" regarding registered capital?

The amended "Company Law" introduces a deadline for the subscription payment for limited liability companies and a payment-in-full system for stock corporations.
1.1 Except for stock corporations that follow a payment-in-full system, the shareholders of a limited liability company must pay their subscribed capital within five years from the date of the company's establishment, according to the company's articles of association. The capital for share increases should also be paid within five years from the date of applying for the increase.
1.2 Newly established stock corporations must pay in full before registering their establishment, and the additional capital should also be fully paid.

Q2. Since July 1st, the rule that the subscribed capital should be paid in full within five years after establishment applies to which types of business entities?

This applies to limited liability companies.
2.1 For limited liability companies, the "five-year payment" rule applies, where the subscribers or shareholders of a stock corporation must pay the full amount of their shares before the company's establishment meeting and make the payment for the establishment registration after the meeting.
2.2 The amended "Company Law" does not apply to non-company legal persons, partnership enterprises, sole proprietor-ships, agricultural cooperatives, and other types of business entities, which continue to follow relevant laws and regulations.

Q3. After the amended "Company Law" came into effect, do all newly established companies need to pay in full within five years?

After the amended "Company Law" took effect, the company's registered capital has changed from a completely subscribed system to a deadline system, with limited liability companies required to pay in full within five years. However, for stock corporations, the subscribers or shareholders must pay the full amount of their shares before the company's establishment meeting and make the payment for the establishment registration after the meeting.

Q4. Does the new capital contribution rule affect companies already established before June 30, 2024?

Yes. The scope of the application includes not only newly established companies (after July 1, 2024) but also existing companies (before June 30, 2024)

Q5. How should the capital contribution period be adjusted for companies already established before June 30, 2024?

A three-year transitional period (until June 30, 2027) is set for adjusting the capital contribution period for companies established before June 30, 2024. Specific arrangements are as follows: (1) Limited liability companies should adjust their capital contribution period to within five years from the date of adjustment. (2) Stock corporations should pay in full the subscribed capital of shares within the transitional period.

Q6. The amended "Company Law" took effect on July 1, 2024. If a company has been established for many years, is it affected by the "five-year payment" rule?

The "five-year payment" rule applies to both companies established after and before the implementation of the amended "Company Law". For companies established before the amended "Company Law", a three-year transitional period is set. For limited liability companies, if the remaining capital contribution period is less than five years from July 1, 2027, no adjustment to the capital contribution period is needed. If the remaining period exceeds five years (i.e., beyond June 30, 2032), it should be adjusted to within five years during the transitional period (i.e., by June 30, 2027). The adjusted capital contribution period for shareholders should be recorded in the company's articles of association and legally announcement on the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System. For stock corporations, the full subscribed capital should be paid within the three-year transitional period (i.e., by June 30, 2027).

Q7. If shareholders have agreed in the articles of association to a three-year payment period, is the longest payment period three years or five years? Can shareholders pay their subscribed capital in installments?

Firstly, "five years" is the statutory maximum period for payment. If the company's articles of association stipulate a shorter period, shareholders must pay within that period. Additionally, shareholders may pay their subscribed capital in installments within the period not exceeding five years as stipulated in the articles of association.

Q8. What should a company do if it has a high registered capital and a long payment period?

The company may choose one of the following three ways:
1) Complete the actual payment of capital. Consider paying in full once or in installments within the subscribed period. Shareholders can pay in currency, or they can use tangible assets, intellectual property, land use rights, equity, debt, and other non-monetary assets that can be valued in monetary terms and legally transferred. However, properties that are prohibited by laws and administrative regulations from being used as capital are exceptions.
2) Reduce capital and adjust the subscribed period in accordance with the requirements and procedures of the amended "Company Law," and legally handle the change registration.
3) For a company that is poorly managed, choosing to dissolve the company is an option.

Q9. What are the new provisions of the amended "Company Law" regarding capital reduction?

(1) When a company reduces its registered capital, it must reduce the capital contribution or shareholding proportionally according to the shareholders' capital or shareholdings. (2) The amended "Company Law" adds two new scenarios for capital reduction: one is to make up for losses, and the other is for shareholder's rights forfeiture. When a company publishes a capital reduction notice on the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System, it should choose the corresponding notice option based on the actual situation.

Q10. Can a company handle capital reduction if it incurs losses?

When a company has losses, it should first make up for them according to the law using reserve funds. If there are still losses, the registered capital can be reduced to make up for them. In such a case, the company cannot distribute profits to shareholders or exempt shareholders from their obligations to pay capital or share subscription amounts. This type of capital reduction only requires a notice of reduction to apply for the reduction registration, without the need to wait for the 45-day notice period like general capital reduction.

Q11. Can an investor establish a company with only one shareholder?

Yes. The amended "Company Law" has removed the original restrictions on one-person limited liability companies, allowing an individual to invest in establishing multiple companies with only one shareholder, allowing a company with only one shareholder to invest in establishing another company with only one shareholder, and allowing non-person entities (such as partnerships, sole proprietorships) to invest in establishing a company with only one shareholder.

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E-mail:[email protected]

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新《公司法》，11问11答

1.新《公司法》关于注册资本的新规定是什么？
答：有限责任公司限期认缴制，股份有限公司实缴制。
1.1除实行注册资本登记实缴制的公司外，有限责任公司股东认缴的出资额由股东按照公司章程的规定自公司成立之日起五年内缴足，增资部分的出资期限为办理增资申请之日起五年内。
1.2新设股份有限公司应当在办理设立登记前实缴，增资部分也应实缴。2.7月1日后，关于认缴的出资额要在成立之日起五年内缴足的规定，适用于哪些经营主体？答：适用于有限责任公司。
2.1“五年缴足”适用于有限责任公司，股份有限公司的发起人、认股人应当分别在公司成立大会前全额、足额缴纳股款，在成立大会后申请设立登记。
2.2新《公司法》不适用于非公司企业法人、合伙企业、个人独资企业、个体工商户、农民专业合作社等经营主体，仍按相关法律法规办理。3.新《公司法》施行后，对新设公司都需要在成立之日起五年内实缴吗？
答：新《公司法》施行后，公司注册资本由完全认缴制改为限期实缴制，要在五年内完成实缴的是“有限责任公司”，而股份有限公司的发起人、认股人应当分别在公司成立大会前全额、足额缴纳股款，在成立大会后申请设立登记。4.6月30日前已设立的公司，是否受注册资本新规影响？
答：是。“注册资本新规既适用于7月1日后设立的公司，也适用于6月30日前设立的公司。5.6月30日前已设立的公司，出资期限该如何调整？
答：为6月30日前设立的公司调整认缴出资期限设置了三年过渡期（即2027年6月30日前）。具体安排如下：（1）有限责任公司应当在过渡期内将出资期限调整为自调整之日起五年内。（2）股份有限公司应当在过渡期内缴足认购股份的股款。6.新《公司法》于2024年7月1日起实施，如公司已成立多年，是否受“五年缴足”新规影响？答：“五年缴足”规定既适用于新《公司法》实施后设立的公司，也适用于新《公司法》实施前设立的公司。对于新《公司法》实施前设立的公司设置三年过渡期。对于有限责任公司，自2027年7月1日起剩余出资期限不足五年的，无需调整出资期限，剩余出资期限超过五年（即超过2032年6月30日）的，应当在过渡期内（即2027年6月30日内）将剩余出资期限调整至五年内（即2032年6月30日）。调整后股东的出资期限应当记载于公司章程，并依法在国家企业信用信息公示系统上向社会公示。对于股份有限公司，应当在三年过渡期内（即2027年6月30日内），缴足认购股份的股款。7.如果股东在章程中约定了三年缴足出资，那么最长缴纳期限是三年还是五年？股东是否可以分批缴纳认缴的出资额？
答：首先，“五年缴足”是法定的最长期限，如果公司章程自行约定了比五年更短的期限，则股东应当在该更短期限内缴足。此外，法律、行政法规以及国务院决定对有限责任公司注册资本实缴、注册资本最低限额、股东出资期限另有规定的，从其规定。其次，股东可以在章程约定的、不超过5年的期限内分批认缴出资额。8.公司登记的注册资本数额较高，认缴期限也比较长，应该怎么办？根据公司情况，可以采取以下三种途径办理：第一种：完成实缴出资。可以考虑在认缴期限内一次或分次完成缴纳。股东可以用货币出资，也可以用实物、知识产权、土地使用权、股权、债权等可以用货币估价并可以依法转让的非货币财产作价出资；但是，法律、行政法规规定不得作为出资的财产除外。第二种：按照新《公司法》要求及程序进行减资并调整认缴期限，依法办理变更登记。第三种：对于经营不善的公司，可以选择注销。9.新《公司法》关于减资有哪些新规定？
答：（1）公司减少注册资本时，应当按照股东出资或者持有股份的比例相应减少出资额或者股份。（2）新《公司法》新增了两种减资情形：一是弥补亏损减资，二是股东失权减资。公司在国家企业信用信息公示系统上发布减资公告时，根据实际情况选择相应的减资公告选项。10.公司发生亏损，能否办理减资？公司出现亏损，应先依法使用公积金弥补。仍有亏损的，可以减少注册资本弥补。减少注册资本弥补亏损的，公司不得向股东分配，也不得免除股东缴纳出资或者股款的义务。此种减资只需进行减资公告即可申请减资登记，无需像一般减资要等45日公告期满。11.一个投资者能否成立只有一个股东的公司？
答：可以。新《公司法》取消了一人有限公司原有限制，允许一个自然人投资设立多家“只有一个股东的公司”，允许一个自然人投资设立的公司再投资设立“只有一个股东的公司”，允许非法人组织（合伙企业、个人独资企业）投资设立“只有一个股东的公司”。

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Top Capital KKR's Latest Report: Be Cautious and Enjoy Watching More China!

---The copyright belongs to the original author. Please indicate the original source for reproduction. The content is for communication and learning purposes only and does not represent any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact the background to request deletion.

Henry McVey, Global Head of Macroeconomics & Asset Allocation at top capital KKR, recently conducted an in-depth study of China and concluded that China's story is still fraught with complexity and drama. For example, the strong economic growth in recent years has not translated into "powerful" stock market performance, and there may be a deep economic restructuring behind it that has not yet been fully interpreted. Geopolitical tensions, especially in the run-up to the United States presidential election, are likely to escalate further. These geopolitical tensions are more of a structural issue than a cyclical one. We have extracted some key takeaways from KKR's research report to share them briefly.

China's economy is showing signs of bottoming out

KKR's internal surveys show that many global investors are starting to consider reducing their share of investments in China from 10-12% to 5-6%. However, while most people are cautious about China's economy, KKR believes that economic fundamentals may be bottoming out. KKR's exchanges with logistics company executives indicate that China's export engine is gaining momentum again, thanks to the recovery of United States consumption.
At the same time, more and more countries are choosing to trade in RMB, which has undoubtedly injected a boost into China's economy.

Intra-Asian trade continues to increase

What is more noteworthy is the strong momentum of intra-Asian trade. Overall, Asia is becoming more self-reliant as intra-regional trade continues to increase. In 1990, only 46% of Asia's trade was conducted internally, and by 2021, that share had soared to 58%. KKR predicts that this percentage will grow by another 10% in the coming years. China has not only gained market share through its competitive exports but has also established a more local presence in key markets such as Vietnam. This two-pronged strategy has given China a stronger position in intra-Asian trade. As intra-Asian trade continues to expand, demand for infrastructure will continue to grow, and credit markets will grow along with it – which could be a good investment theme.

China's structural transformation path is toward a digital economy and a green economy

According to KKR's definition, the new economy sectors include the green economy, artificial intelligence, and industrial automation and digitalization. These sectors account for only about 20% of China's total economy but contribute up to 55% of GDP growth, leading the country through a profound structural transformation.
For example, in the manufacturing sector, China's decarbonization process focuses on three aspects:
1.Reduction in the carbon footprint of the manufacturing process;
2.Optimization of cargo transportation, especially by improving loading and logistics efficiency, and using artificial intelligence to achieve refined management;
3.Development of renewable energy: As of 2023, China's installed renewable energy capacity has reached 1.45 billion kilowatts, accounting for more than 50% of the total installed power generation capacity, injecting strong impetus into the green economy.In short, high-quality, low-emission, and advanced technologies are the new focus. With ultra-long-term government bonds, China is investing 5 trillion yuan (over US$700 billion) annually in equipment replacement and upgrade programs, focusing on energy efficiency, automation, and digital transformation.However, with the rapid expansion of the new economy sector, there is also a risk of overcapacity and increased competition. Due to their strategic importance, these areas may face challenges such as export controls, market access restrictions, restrictions on foreign joint ventures, and investment restrictions.

Two issues need to be addressed

First, the real estate sector remains an ongoing issue. The problem is not only huge but also complex. KKR noted some key data:
1. Housing starts: The sharp drop in developer confidence triggered a sharp decline in housing starts, which fell by nearly 60% from the peak.
2. Housing investment: China's housing investment has fallen by 25% from its peak. This "slow-burning" effect will have adverse effects if assets within the banking system are not quickly liquidated and a strong monetary policy is not implemented (as seen in Japan's three-decade decline).
3. Housing prices: Despite the sharp drop in transaction volumes, housing prices in China have barely adjusted and are likely to face further pressure in the future.
4. Housing inventory: By the end of 2023, China had accumulated a housing inventory of about 25 million units, including 3 million completed and 22 million homes to be delivered, while the annual household formation was only 6 million to 8 million units. The huge mismatch means that if the government does not further introduce measures to improve quality and clear assets, it will take a considerable amount of time to consume the inventory. Historical experience in other regions has shown that both prices and volumes must be under pressure to complete the clean-up cycle, and that speed and boldness in policy will be critical in this process.

Second, confidence must be restored to boost consumption and reduce savings, thereby incentivizing consumers and businesses to upgrade to higher quality in the consumer and industrial sectors.The share of savings in household income has now risen to an average of 32.5%, compared to 29.1% before the pandemic. A return to previous levels could result in an increase in spending of about $200 billion per year.The government's current response is to be more aggressive in supply-side reforms.
There is some good news in this regard:
1. Urbanization rate: The urbanization rate is still 66%, and there is room for growth of 10-12% compared to developed markets in China, which is equivalent to a possible increase in the income of 150 million or more consumers. In addition, there are about 170 million migrant workers living in cities who are not registered, which could stimulate the consumption of an additional 1.2 trillion yuan (about US$170 billion) among these households.
2. Disposable income is growing fast, and consumption is growing: Disposable income per household increased by 6.1% in 2023, slightly higher than overall economic growth. Although China's explicit consumption has declined, basic goods and services and modest lifestyle upgrading activities in the upper middle-income range have remained solid. Domestic travel was also strong, with 474 million trips made by domestic tourists during the Spring Festival holiday, up 34% year-on-year. It is expected that by 2025, high-end consumers may prefer to travel to places such as Japan and Europe.
3. The potential of modernizing the capital market to attract more foreign capital to enter and exit the Chinese market. China's stock market is attractively priced by most indicators but lacks some catalyst for multiples. At the same time, domestic market reforms are a potentially big opportunity, and now is the time to focus on modernizing China's domestic asset management industry, which could rebound significantly from current levels if China adjusts its domestic policies to be more friendly, especially in terms of supply-side reforms.

Changes in China's financial services system triggered by lower interest rates

As interest rates fall further, China's financial services system will usher in a series of important changes. If short-term interest rates fall from 1.8% to 1%, we may continue to see signs of low inflation in 2025. In this environment, domestic financial intermediaries, such as banks and insurance companies, will have to recalibrate their portfolios (no longer relying solely on traditional fixed income products) and instead seek higher yields and total returns to offset expected net interest margin pressures. From a broader perspective, the opportunities for modern China's savings system are enormous.

GDP growth is not that important

Whether China will grow by 4% or 5% in the next few years is not that important in KKR's view, as China is already one of the world's largest and fastest-growing mature economies. The key is whether the country has developed a coherent strategy to reduce the cost of capital, thereby making China more competitive on the global stage. A simple and effective approach might be to focus on the health of the local A-share market and relax restrictions on foreign investors' holdings of shares in existing listed companies. In fact, many Chinese companies are very attractive from a global perspective. KKR visited and met with executives from high-quality companies that 1) cater to consumer upgrades and service needs; 2) offer solid returns on investment; 3) are very attractively valued relative to global benchmarks. However, these companies either remain private for a long time or choose to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If these companies are able to list on A-shares, it will greatly expand the breadth of the public market and make it more competitive.

Three areas to watch in the future

First, focus on inflation expectations. The shadow of inflation could affect consumer confidence and hinder economic growth. One potential solution is supply-side reforms, which include monitoring overproduction in various industries to avoid overcapacity. At the same time, the rapid resolution of the housing problem is also a top priority, and only by allowing people to live with peace of mind can we promote the healthy development of the economy.The second is to improve productivity. In the past, China relied on high levels of leverage to drive economic growth, but now we need to turn to productivity improvement. This is particularly important in the context of demographic change and slowing urbanization. Private ownership of China's top 100 listed companies has declined since 2020. To reverse this trend, we should redirect capital and focus to the private sector to stimulate productivity growth. Local governments are also responding by pushing for faster supply-side reforms, speeding up the approval process, optimizing procedures, and rewarding job growth.Third, we need to focus on the perception of the public market. Although China's economy has grown significantly over the past few decades, this growth has not been fully reflected in stock market performance. As global geopolitical tensions intensify, it is important to build strong and robust domestic capital markets. KKR sees two possible ways forward: First, the state may push more companies in the non-digital and green sectors to go public. There are many world-class consumer companies in China, but many are still held by private equity investors and do not have access to the public market. The second is to build a more complex retirement savings market, encourage long-term investment strategies, and provide individuals with more transparent and high-quality savings tools. Looking ahead,

We remain cautiously optimistic...

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谨慎乐观看多中国！但要关注这几件事情……

---原文章编译整理自KKR《Thoughts From the Road》，作者：McVey @ TOP创新区研究院。本文内容仅供交流学习，不代表任何投资建议。如有侵权请联系后台删除。

顶级资本KKR的全球宏观经济与资产配置负责人Henry McVey最近对中国进行了一次深入调研，结论是：中国的故事，依旧充满复杂性和戏剧性。比如近年来的强劲的经济增长，并没有转化为“给力”的股市表现，可能背后隐藏着一场尚未被完全解读的深层次经济重构。
当前，地缘政治紧张局势如影随形，尤其是在美国总统大选即将来临之际，局势有可能进一步升级，这些地缘政治的紧张因素更像是一个结构性问题，而非周期性。从KKR的调研报告中提取了一些关键要点，和大家做一个简要分享。

中国经济显示出触底反弹迹象

KKR内部调查显示，许多全球投资者开始考虑将他们在中国的投资比重从10-12%降至5-6%。不过，正当大多数人对中国经济持谨慎态度时，KKR却认为经济基本面可能正触底反弹：KKR与物流公司高层的交流显示，得益于美国消费的复苏，中国的出口引擎再次发力。
同时，越来越多的国家选择以人民币进行交易，这无疑为中国经济注入了强心剂。

亚洲内部贸易持续增加

更值得关注的是，亚洲内部贸易的强劲势头。
整体来看，随着区域内贸易的持续增加，亚洲正变得愈发以自己为中心。
1990年，亚洲仅有46%的贸易是在内部进行的，KKR预测，未来几年这一比例还将再增长10%。
中国不仅通过其竞争力强大的出口产品赢得了市场份额，还在越南等关键市场建立了更本地化的存在。这种双管齐下的策略，让中国在亚洲内部贸易中占据了更加有利的位置。随着亚洲内部贸易的不断扩展，基础设施建设需求将持续增长，而信贷市场也将随之壮大——可能是一个好的投资主题。

中国的结构性转型之路向数字经济与绿色经济升级

根据KKR的定义，新经济领域包括绿色经济、人工智能以及工业自动化和数字化，这些虽然只占中国经济总量的约20%，却贡献了高达55%的GDP增长，引领这中国经历一场深刻的结构性转型。例如在制造业领域，中国的脱碳进程聚焦于三个方面：
1. 制造过程的碳足迹减少；2. 货物运输优化，特别是通过提升装载和物流效率，运用人工智能来实现精细化管理；3. 发展可再生能源发展：截至2023年，中国的可再生能源装机容量已达14.5亿千瓦，占总装机发电容量的50%以上，为绿色经济注入了强劲动力。简言之，高质量、低排放和先进技术成为新的发展焦点。借助超长期政府债券，中国每年投入5万亿人民币（超过7,000亿美元）用于设备替换和升级计划，重点关注能效提升、自动化及数字化转型。然而，随着新经济领域的快速扩张，也面临着产能过剩和竞争加剧的风险。这些领域因其战略性重要性，可能会面临出口管制、市场准入限制、外资合资限制及投资限制等挑战。如果不加以合理控制，这些履行重要战略任务的公司可能会面临显著的利润压力。

需要解决的几个问题

如果中国想要实现GDP的可持续、结构性加速增长，必须解决几个关键问题。首先，房地产依然是一个持续的问题。这里面涉及到诸多因素，问题不仅巨大而且复杂，KKR注意到了一些关键数据：1．住房开工率：开发商信心的急剧下降引发了住房开工的急剧下滑，从峰值下降了近60%。
2．住房投资：中国的住房投资从峰值下降了25%。这种“慢燃”效应如果不迅速清理银行系统内的资产并实施强有力的货币政策，将会带来不利影响（日本持续三十年的下滑）
3．住房价格：尽管交易量大幅下降，中国的住房价格几乎没有调整，未来可能会有进一步的压力。
4. 住房库存：截至2023年底，中国积累了约2500万套住房库存，包括300万套完工和2200万套待交付的住房，而每年家庭形成量仅为600-800万套。巨大的不匹配意味着，如果政府不进一步介入提高质量和清理资产，消化库存将需要相当长的时间。其他地区的历史经验表明，要完成清理周期，价格和交易量都必须承压，政策的速度和大胆在过程中至关重要。

其次，必须恢复信心以推动消费，减少储蓄，从而激励消费者和企业在消费和工业领域进行更高质量的升级。目前，中国家庭收入中的储蓄比例已上升到32.5%的平均水平，而疫情前是29.1%。如果恢复到之前的水平，每年可能会增加约2000亿美元的支出。政府目前的应对方式是更积极的供给侧改革。这方面有一些好消息：
1，城市化率：城市化率仍为66%，相比发达市场中国仍有10-12%的增长空间，相当于1.5亿或更多的消费者收入可能增加。此外，有约1.7亿在城市生活的农民工未登记户口，给予这些居民户口将刺激额外的1.2万亿人民币（约1700亿美元）的消费。
2，可支配收入增速快，消费增长：2023年每户家庭可支配收入增加了6.1%，略高于整体经济增长。虽然中国的显性消费减少，但基本商品和服务以及中高收入范围内的适度生活方式升级活动仍然稳固。国内旅行也很强劲，春节假期期间，国内游客出行量达到4.74亿人次，同比增长34%。预计到2025年，高端消费者可能会更加青睐前往日本和欧洲等地旅行。
3，现代化资本市场的潜力，以吸引更多外国资本进入和退出中国市场。目前中国股市按大多数指标来看都很便宜，但缺乏一些扩展倍数的催化剂。与此同时，国内市场改革是一个潜在的大机会，现在是紧急关注现代化中国国内资产管理行业的时机，如果中国调整其国内政策以更加友好（尤其是供给侧改革），市场可能会从当前水平显著反弹。

利率下调引发的中国金融服务体系变革

随着利率进一步走低，中国的金融服务体系将迎来一系列重要变革。如果短期利率从1.8%降至1%，我们可能在2025年继续看到低通胀的迹象。这种环境下，银行和保险公司等国内金融中介机构将不得不重新调整他们的投资组合(不能再只依靠传统的固定收益产品)，而是要寻求更高收益率和总回报的工具，以抵消预期的净息差压力。
而从更宏观的角度来看，现代化中国的储蓄体系蕴藏着巨大机遇。

GDP增速没那么重要

中国未来几年是增长4%还是5%，在KKR看来没有那么重要，因为中国已经是全球最大的、增长最快的成熟经济体之一。
关键在于，国家是否制定了一个连贯的战略来降低资本成本，从而使中国在全球舞台上更具竞争力。
一个简单有效的方法可能是关注本地A股市场的健康状况，并放宽对境外投资者持有现有上市公司股份的限制。其实很多中国公司在全球视角下非常具有吸引力。KKR走访会见了一些高质量公司的高管，这些公司1）迎合了消费者升级和服务需求；2）投资回报率稳固；3）估值水平相对于全球价值视角非常具有吸引力。
然而，这些公司要么长时间保持私有，要么选择在香港交易所上市。
如果这些公司能够在A股上市，将极大地扩展公共市场的广度，使其更具竞争力。

未来有3个关键领域值得关注

首先要关注通胀预期。通货膨胀的阴影可能影响消费者信心，阻碍经济增长。
供给侧改革是潜在的解决方案之一，这包括监控各行业的过剩生产，避免产能过剩。同时，快速解决住房问题也是重中之重，只有让老百姓住得安心，才能推动经济健康发展。其次要提升生产力。以往，中国依靠高杠杆水平推动经济增长，但现在我们要转向生产力的提升。这在人口结构变化和城市化速度减缓的大背景下显得尤为重要。自2020年以来，中国前100家上市公司的私人所有权有所下降。为了逆转这一趋势，我们应该将资本和关注点重新转向私营部门，以激发生产力的增长。地方政府也在积极响应，推动更快的供给侧改革，加快审批流程、优化流程，并奖励就业增长。第三，我们要关注公共市场的感知。尽管中国经济在过去几十年里取得了显著增长，但这种增长并未完全反映在股市表现上。随着全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧，建设强大而稳健的国内资本市场变得尤为重要。KKR认为有两条可能的前进道路：
一是国家可能推动更多非数字化和绿色部门的公司上市。中国有许多世界级的消费公司，但很多仍被私募投资者持有，无法进入公共市场。
二是建立更复杂的退休储蓄市场，鼓励长期投资策略，并为个人提供更透明和高质量的储蓄工具。展望未来，我们仍谨持乐观态度......

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